Early harvests; bulk markets incremental amid price sensitivity
With all of the Northern Hemisphere’s winegrape harvests running well in advance of a normal timetable, estimates are starting to be made of final crop sizes and pricing is forming on the 2026 vintages. This month’s Global Market Report provides the latest on the growing and harvest season – dramatic in Europe, heat-wise – and drills down into harvest timing, yields, and market reaction.
Buyers on the bulk market are currently extremely price-sensitive amid a margins squeeze, as rising input costs compound the financial impact of ongoing – now multi-year – demand weakness from North American and European retail. Knowing that inventory is likely to be available when they require it, at least somewhere, buyers look set – now more than ever – to secure volumes on an incremental, just-in-time basis. September’s Global Pricing Grid can be found here, including new 2026-vintage pricing in Spain.
Post-pandemic inflationary tailwinds, recently exacerbated by energy-price rises resulting from the Middle East conflict, have caused a cost-of-living crisis in many markets, even if headline economic indicators remain stable. The reduction in the discretionary spending power of consumers has compounded the long-term erosion of wine consumption by health messaging and cultural changes – a significant example of the latter being the preference of Generation Z consumers (roughly those aged 18-29) for digital connection over social drinking culture.
Mentioned in this month’s Global Market Report are steps that might be taken to help combat declining consumption, such as smaller packaging sizes or providing an alternative narrative to over-zealous health messaging. There are brands out there that have triangulated growing consumer preference for sparkling/lighter wines, innovative branding/packaging, and a value-for-money RRP, to good effect. Bulk inventory is currently available in the volume and at the pricing that makes more such propositions highly workable.
As well as bringing extreme heat to Europe, the El Niño climate phenomenon has been influencing conditions south of the equator: the Western Cape has experienced an unseasonably mild, dry winter; Chile’s growing areas, having received dramatic winter rains, are seeing a premature start to spring; on the other side of the Andes, Mendoza experienced a mild winter and is facing similarly early spring-like conditions; solid winter rains have fallen in Australia’s growing areas, with Adelaide having its wettest winter in 22 years. El Niño is forecast to persist into the second quarter of 2027 – by which time, it is hoped, the bulk markets of the world will be more active.
Read the full Ciatti Global Market Report for September
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