A Conversation with Chris Bitter, Senior Wine & Grape Analyst
The latest edition of Winescape examines import competition. American AgCredit’s wine industry analyst on their Terrain team, Chris Bitter, discusses what the data reveals, where the biggest challenges exist, and what opportunities may lie ahead for producers.
Q: Everyone seems to be talking about exports. Share what made you look at the other side of the equation, imports.
Chris Bitter: News headlines have been filled with “tariff” and “retaliatory tariff” for more than 18 months, but imports have been gaining market share for decades. Imports now account for about 35% of the wine consumed in the United States, which is near a historic high. When overall demand is growing, market share shifts don't always draw much attention. When demand is shrinking, every point of market share matters.
Q: Much of the discussion focuses on imported bulk wine. Is that the whole story?
Chris Bitter: No. Bulk wine imports are certainly part of the conversation, but they're not the whole picture. One of the biggest misconceptions is that import competition is only happening at the lower end of the market. The data shows that packaged imported wines have also gained significant share and are responsible for much of the increase in import penetration over recent years. The competitive landscape is broader than many people realize.
Q: Are certain wine categories more exposed than others?
Chris Bitter: Absolutely. Imports perform particularly well in sparkling wine, Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Grigio. These categories account for a substantial portion of imported wine sales and align closely with some of the fastest-growing consumer preferences we've seen over the past decade. Meanwhile, domestic producers tend to hold stronger positions in categories like Cabernet Sauvignon and other red wines. Understanding where imports are winning can help inform strategic decisions.
Q: If imports continue gaining share, what does that mean for growers and wineries?
Chris Bitter: It creates challenges, but it also highlights opportunity. One of the exercises I explored in the report was what would happen if domestic producers regained even a modest amount of market share. The potential impact on domestic wine sales and grape demand is significant. That's why this discussion matters. It's not simply about what's being lost. It's also about what could potentially be regained.
Q: Can domestic producers realistically compete on price?
Chris Bitter: In entry-level wines, no. Production costs in California have increased substantially, while imported bulk wine from countries such as Chile and Australia continues to have a meaningful cost advantage. I don't believe the future success of the U.S. wine industry will come from trying to become the lowest-cost producer. That's not where our competitive advantage lies.
Q: So where do you see the biggest opportunity?
Chris Bitter: I believe the greatest opportunity is in the popular-premium and premium segments. U.S. producers are often better positioned to compete on quality, innovation, vineyard sourcing and brand strength than on cost alone. The challenge is less about winning a race to the bottom and more about creating compelling wines and brands that justify their value to consumers.
Q: What should wine industry leaders be watching as they plan for 2027?
Chris Bitter: Beyond imports, they should watch the broader economic environment and how it affects discretionary spending. The wine market showed modest improvement during the first half of 2026, but challenges remain. At the same time, the smaller California crop may help reduce inventory overhang and move grape supply and demand toward better balance over time. These interconnected trends will shape the market outlook heading into next year.
Q: What's the one takeaway you hope readers gain from your latest research?
Chris Bitter: The import discussion is important, and it's nuanced. There are real challenges, but there are also meaningful opportunities. Understanding where imports are winning, why they're winning, and where domestic producers can compete most effectively is critical for the industry's future.
Read the Full Analysis
These insights are explored in greater detail in the latest edition of Winescape – Fall 2026, including market trends, the harvest outlook, import market-share analysis, and strategic considerations for wineries and growers navigating today's evolving market.
