Situation: A severe decline in grape demand and prices, along with rising grape production costs, have pulled down California’s vineyard values.
Finding: The market is distinctly bifurcated, with an uneven decline across and within market segments. Considerable buyer interest remains for top-tier vineyards in premier appellations, whose value has held up relatively well. Vineyards with strategic appeal to a winery or those that can offer guaranteed income streams are also faring well in the market.
Outlook: A softening in vineyard values in the near term is fairly certain. But under my base-case scenario that the grape market will begin to stabilize in 2027 or 2028 in most regions, the vineyard market bottom shouldn’t be far behind. The longer-term trajectory of vineyard values will depend largely on the strength of grape price appreciation, which will vary across market segments.
